Oil prices remained close to a five-week high on Monday, as fears that Iran could curb crude exports during a sweeping crackdown on anti-government protests outweighed expectations of rising supply from Venezuela, another sanctions-hit OPEC producer.
Brent crude futures edged up 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.99.
Both benchmarks ended Friday at their strongest levels since December 5, after concerns mounted that Iran — one of the largest producers within OPEC — could scale back exports amid escalating domestic unrest.
Iran said on Monday it is maintaining communication channels with the United States as President Donald Trump weighs potential responses to a violent nationwide crackdown on protests. The unrest represents one of the most serious challenges to Iran’s ruling clerical system since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
A U.S. official told Reuters that Trump is expected to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss policy options related to Iran.
Venezuela export restart offsets supply fears
At the same time, markets are watching developments in Venezuela, where oil exports are expected to resume following the removal of former President Nicolas Maduro.
Trump said last week that the new authorities in Caracas are prepared to transfer up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. The prospect has sparked a scramble among oil traders and producers to secure tankers and prepare logistics to safely ship the crude, according to sources familiar with the plans.
Commodities trading giant Trafigura said during a White House meeting on Friday that its first vessel could begin loading within the next week.
Wider supply risks remain in focus
Beyond the Middle East and Latin America, investors are also monitoring potential supply disruptions elsewhere. In Russia, ongoing Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure have raised concerns, alongside the possibility of tougher U.S. sanctions targeting Moscow’s oil sector.
In Azerbaijan, oil exports declined to 23.1 million tonnes in 2025 from 24.4 million tonnes the previous year, according to the country’s energy ministry. Both Russia and Azerbaijan are members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allied producers.
Meanwhile, Norway signaled it will outline a long-term strategy for its oil and gas industry next year. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said the sector remains vital to the country’s economy and should continue to be developed rather than phased out.
Outlook and interest rate uncertainty
Despite current price support, Goldman Sachs said in a note that oil prices are likely to drift lower over the course of the year as additional supply enters the market, potentially creating a surplus. However, the bank cautioned that geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are likely to keep volatility elevated.
In the United States, renewed political pressure on the Federal Reserve has added another layer of uncertainty. The Trump administration intensified criticism of the Fed, raising concerns among investors about its independence.
The administration threatened legal action against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over congressional testimony related to a renovation project — a move Powell described as a pretext aimed at influencing interest rate policy.
Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth and support oil demand by reducing borrowing costs, but they may also limit the Fed’s ability to respond to future inflation pressures. Central banks typically adjust rates to balance growth and inflation risks.
