Oil Prices Steady as OPEC+ Plans to Pause Output Increases
Oil prices held largely steady on Monday despite news that OPEC+ will pause its output increases, as market sentiment remained pressured by concerns over a potential global oil supply glut and weak manufacturing data from Asia.
By 13:29 GMT, Brent crude futures slipped by just 1 cent (0.02%) to $64.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged down 2 cents (0.03%) to $60.96 a barrel.
OPEC+ to Pause Output Hikes in 2026
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, announced on Sunday that they will increase production by a modest 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, before halting further output hikes during the first quarter of 2026.
Both Brent and WTI benchmarks fell more than 2% in October, marking their third consecutive monthly decline and reaching a five-month low on October 20.
Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the global oil market could face a surplus of up to 4 million bpd in 2026, while OPEC maintains that global supply and demand are likely to balance next year.
Analysts at SEB noted that while the production pause won’t change the expected surplus, it underscores OPEC+’s ongoing focus on price stability. “It shows that OPEC+ still cares about price and won’t let 2026 become a disaster for oil,” they said in a note.
Analysts Caution Against Bearish Outlook
At an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, several European oil executives cautioned against an overly bearish view of the oil market for next year, emphasizing that global demand may remain resilient despite current headwinds.
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets highlighted Russia as a key supply wildcard, pointing to recent U.S. sanctions against major Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as drone attacks targeting Russian energy infrastructure amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Over the weekend, a Ukrainian drone strike hit the port of Tuapse, one of Russia’s primary Black Sea oil terminals, sparking a fire and damaging at least one vessel.
Asia’s Weak Factory Data Adds Pressure
Fresh business surveys released Monday showed that manufacturing activity in Asia’s largest industrial economies continued to weaken in October. The region — the world’s biggest oil consumer — remains under pressure from slowing global trade and fragile industrial output, further dampening oil demand expectations.
