Oil prices were largely unchanged on Tuesday, as the market balanced fresh geopolitical supply risks against ongoing bearish fundamentals. Potential U.S. sales of seized Venezuelan crude were offset by growing concerns over supply disruptions following new attacks linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Brent crude futures edged up by 6 cents to $62.13 a barrel by 12:21 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 2 cents to $58.03. The modest moves followed a strong rally on Monday, when prices climbed more than 2%. Brent posted its largest daily gain in two months, and WTI recorded its biggest jump since mid-November.
According to Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah, the oil market is currently caught between oversupply-driven bearish pressures and renewed supply risks. These concerns stem from reduced Venezuelan exports due to U.S. enforcement actions, as well as escalating attacks on vessels and port infrastructure involving Russia and Ukraine.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could either retain or sell oil seized off Venezuela’s coast in recent weeks. The seizures are part of broader U.S. measures, including what officials have described as a blockade targeting sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving the country.
Despite these near-term risks, Barclays expects global oil markets to remain well supplied through the first half of 2026. In a note released Monday, the bank said the current surplus should narrow to around 700,000 barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2026, warning that prolonged disruptions could tighten supply conditions further.
Geopolitical tensions intensified late Monday after Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa, damaging port facilities and a commercial vessel. This marked the second attack on the area within 24 hours. At the same time, Ukrainian drone strikes hit two vessels and two piers in Russia’s Krasnodar region, triggering a fire in a nearby village.
Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russia’s maritime logistics network, with a particular focus on so-called shadow-fleet oil tankers that are used to circumvent Western sanctions on Russian crude exports.
