Oil Prices Stabilize as Market Awaits OPEC+ Output Decision
Oil prices steadied on Tuesday after earlier losses, as investors weighed the possibility of an August production increase by the OPEC+ alliance ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.
By 0635 GMT, Brent crude had edged up by 10 cents (0.2%) to $66.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 9 cents (0.1%) to $65.20.
“The market is increasingly concerned that OPEC+ will continue ramping up supply at an aggressive pace,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.
According to four sources cited by Reuters last week, OPEC+ is planning to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, continuing a trend of similar monthly increases that began in May.
If confirmed, this would bring the group’s total production increase for the year to 1.78 million bpd—roughly 1.5% of global oil demand. The group, which includes OPEC members and allies like Russia, is set to meet on July 6.
Analysts at ING noted that these production hikes could keep the oil market “well supplied” through the rest of the year. “Expectations of a balanced market, coupled with substantial spare capacity from OPEC, are providing reassurance,” ING strategists added.
Broader uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy also limited gains in oil. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that despite ongoing negotiations, countries may still face a sharp rise in tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches. If no resolution is reached, current 10% tariffs could revert to Trump’s previously announced levels of 11% to 50% from April 2.
Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent crude could slide to around $60 per barrel by early 2026, citing ample supply and diminished geopolitical risks after recent Israel-Iran de-escalation.
The conflict had initially driven Brent above $80, following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, prices quickly fell to $67 after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the two nations, ending the 12-day conflict that began on June 13.
