Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors prepared for a potential supply surplus. The decline followed expectations of a larger OPEC+ output hike next month and the restart of exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey.
Brent crude futures for November delivery, which expired Tuesday, fell 94 cents or 1.38% to $67.03 a barrel by 11:15 a.m. EDT (1515 GMT). The more active December contract dropped $1.11, or 1.65%, to $65.98.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.10, or 1.73%, to $62.35 per barrel. On Monday, both Brent and WTI had already posted declines of more than 3%, their sharpest daily drop since August 1.
OPEC+ is expected to consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for November, according to two sources familiar with the talks. This would be three times the 137,000 bpd hike agreed for October. Analysts say such a move could squeeze margins for high-cost U.S. shale producers and force them to scale back output.
At the same time, Iraq’s oil ministry confirmed that crude flows from the Kurdistan region to Turkey resumed on Saturday for the first time in two and a half years, following an interim agreement.
Markets remain cautious, balancing concerns about oversupply and weak demand against supply risks. Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries continue to create uncertainty.
Adding to pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump secured support from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for a Gaza peace plan, though Hamas has yet to agree. A successful deal could normalize shipping through the Suez Canal, reducing geopolitical risk premiums.
Further bearish sentiment came from fears of a U.S. government shutdown, which has raised demand concerns. Investors are also waiting for weekly oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute later on Tuesday.
