Oil prices edged lower on Monday, as ample global supply helped offset worries about potential disruptions following the U.S. operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend.
Brent crude futures slipped 21 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.54 a barrel by 04:52 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 28 cents, or 0.5%, to $57.04 a barrel.
Market volatility fades as supply concerns ease
Oil benchmarks were choppy during early Asian trading. Prices opened lower, briefly recovered, and then turned negative again as investors assessed the political turmoil in the OPEC member nation and its potential impact on global supply.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of Venezuela and confirmed that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remains fully in force following Maduro’s detention in New York.
Despite the geopolitical shock, analysts said the global oil market remains well supplied, meaning any further disruption to Venezuela’s exports is unlikely to have a significant near-term effect on prices.
Analysts see limited short-term price impact
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Daan Struyven, said risks to oil prices from Venezuela remain modest and uncertain, largely depending on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves. The bank left its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged.
Senior figures in Maduro’s administration, who have described the detentions of Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores as a kidnapping, remain in power and have pledged unity. However, analysts said that a potential regime change could ultimately weigh on oil prices.
According to analysts at J.P. Morgan, a political transition in Venezuela would represent one of the largest upside risks to global oil supply over 2026–2027 and beyond.
Sanctions, OPEC+, and geopolitical risks
The U.S. strike did not damage Venezuela’s oil production or refining infrastructure. Helima Croft, head of commodities research at RBC Capital Markets, said that full sanctions relief could unlock several hundred thousand barrels per day of additional output.
Trump also warned that the United States could carry out another military strike if remaining Venezuelan officials do not cooperate, adding that unpredictable power shifts could create significant uncertainty, similar to past crises in Libya or Iraq.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group agreed on Sunday to maintain current production levels, further reinforcing supply stability.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after Trump floated the possibility of additional U.S. interventions in Latin America, including potential action involving Colombia and Mexico. Markets are also closely monitoring Iran, after Trump threatened to intervene in response to unrest in the OPEC producer.
