Oil prices remained steady on Tuesday as markets assessed several geopolitical risks, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. fuel inventory forecasts.
Brent crude futures inched up 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.24 a barrel by 0657 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 13 cents, or 0.2%, reaching $59.45 a barrel.
Both crude benchmarks gained more than 1% on Monday, with WTI nearing a two-week high.
According to analysts at Saxo, oil prices held their recent gains as traders awaited potential actions from President Trump regarding Venezuela and continued to monitor the impact of damage at Black Sea terminals.
On Monday, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium confirmed it had restarted oil shipments from one mooring point at its Black Sea facility after a major Ukrainian drone attack on November 29. Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that exports resumed through single point mooring 1 (SPM 1), while SPM 2 remained out of service due to damage.
Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said the ongoing military activity reinforces their view that a peace agreement remains unlikely in the near term. They added that diesel and gasoil markets may soon provide upward support to the broader oil complex.
In comments on ongoing negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv’s priorities include protecting sovereignty and securing strong safety guarantees. He noted that territorial issues remain the most challenging part of discussions. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to brief the Kremlin on Tuesday.
Suvro Sarkar, head of the energy sector team at DBS, said the rising political tension around Venezuela was another key factor for oil markets. While he does not expect a full-scale conflict, he warned that internal instability could disrupt Venezuela’s oil production and exports.
A senior U.S. official stated that President Donald Trump met with top advisers to review the pressure campaign on Venezuela. Over the weekend, Trump declared that Venezuelan airspace should be considered “closed in its entirety,” though he did not offer further clarification.
OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would proceed with a small oil output increase in December but pause further increases in the first quarter of next year due to concerns about oversupply. Sarkar said OPEC’s stance on supply discipline continues to support oil prices in the short term.
Mixed expectations for U.S. crude and refined product inventories also influenced the market. A preliminary Reuters poll of four analysts showed crude stocks likely declined during the week of November 28, while product inventories were expected to rise.
