Oil Prices Rise 1% After Smaller-Than-Expected OPEC+ Output Increase
Oil prices climbed about 1% on Monday after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November. The decision eased worries about oversupply but a weak demand outlook is expected to limit further gains in the near term.
Brent crude futures rose 67 cents, or 1%, to $65.20 per barrel by 06:25 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 66 cents, or 1.1%, to $61.54 per barrel.
Independent analyst Tina Teng noted that the price jump was mainly driven by OPEC+’s cautious move, designed to stabilize markets after recent declines.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, said they would raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November. This marks the same modest monthly increase as October, reflecting concerns about a potential global supply glut.
Before the meeting, insiders reported that Russia favored a smaller increase to support prices, while Saudi Arabia had pushed for a more aggressive output boost to regain market share faster.
In the short term, analysts expect the refinery maintenance season in the Middle East to play a key role in price stability. Sentosa Shipbrokers said higher-than-usual maintenance in the fourth quarter will leave more crude oil available for exports, possibly strengthening global supply.
Elsewhere, refinery shutdowns are also expected to limit intake, with BMI Research predicting that seasonal maintenance could create a temporary oil surplus, potentially triggering a short-term selloff.
According to Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva, weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter remain a headwind. “Without new bullish catalysts and with growing uncertainty in demand, oil prices are likely to stay capped despite OPEC+’s smaller hike,” she said.
Sachdeva added that the market may shift toward oversupply, as seasonal demand tapers off into winter and macroeconomic data offer limited upside momentum.
