Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is set to report earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, with investors closely watching the results as a key test for the AI trade and broader stock market sentiment. Options markets are signaling the potential for a record move in the stock.
Current contracts imply a swing of 6.1% in either direction, which equals about $270 billion in market value — a shift larger than the market capitalization of most S&P 500 companies. Despite the eye-catching figure, this is actually the smallest implied post-earnings swing since the first quarter of 2024. Over the past eight quarters, Nvidia’s realized earnings-day moves averaged 5.9%, lower than the 8.6% typically priced in by options.
Analysts remain focused on whether Nvidia can deliver another “beat-and-raise” quarter. Piper Sandler expects another strong report, citing U.S. hyperscaler spending and renewed demand from China as key drivers. The broker lifted its price target from $180 to $225, forecasting July-quarter revenue of about $45.1 billion, in line with company guidance. However, it also sees upside potential if China sales accelerate under the new licensing framework, estimating an additional $6 billion in revenue for the October quarter.
Piper Sandler also highlighted encouraging signals from hyperscalers on capital expenditure plans for late 2025 and 2026, suggesting sustained pressure on Nvidia to keep up with demand.
Bank of America (BofA) shares a similarly bullish outlook, pointing to strong demand for Nvidia’s new Blackwell architecture and robust AI spending across cloud providers. The bank projects July-quarter sales of $47 billion, above company guidance, and October-quarter revenues of up to $60 billion if H20 chip shipments to China resume.
BofA expects Nvidia’s gross margins to rise toward 73–74% by the third quarter, with further upside possible if written-down inventory is absorbed. Looking ahead, the bank forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue between $210–215 billion, with pro forma EPS in the $4.70–$4.80 range, above Wall Street consensus. By fiscal 2027, earnings could reach $7 per share if the global AI market grows to $341 billion, compared with the current $309 billion estimate, maintaining around 60% annual growth into 2026.
