New OPEC data released on Thursday shows that global oil supply is expected to stay closely aligned with demand in 2026. This outlook sharply contrasts with forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other analysts who warn of a major oversupply next year.
The OPEC+ alliance — made up of OPEC members, Russia, and several partner producers — plans to pause production increases during the first quarter of 2026. The decision comes as many market observers continue to predict an oil glut.
In its monthly report, OPEC stated that OPEC+ produced 43.06 million barrels per day in November. This was an increase of 43,000 barrels per day from the previous month, reflecting the latest supply agreement.
OPEC also expects demand for OPEC+ crude to average 43 million barrels per day in 2026. This estimate is unchanged from the previous month and is nearly equal to November’s actual production. For the first quarter, OPEC projects demand for its crude at 42.6 million barrels per day.
If OPEC+ maintains November’s output level throughout 2026, supply would exceed demand by only 60,000 barrels per day. This calculation, based on the OPEC report, suggests a very tight market.
However, the IEA sees a different picture. Its latest analysis indicates that global oil supply could surpass demand by almost 3.84 million barrels per day next year. That would represent nearly 4% of total world demand.
OPEC also kept its world oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged. The organization added that the global economy remains on stable ground, supporting steady energy consumption.
