Analysts warn that crypto-focused treasury companies could face significant forced selling if MSCI moves forward with plans to exclude them from its widely tracked indexes. Estimates suggest potential outflows could reach as much as $15 billion, adding fresh pressure to already-weak crypto markets.
According to advocacy group BitcoinForCorporations, removing crypto treasury firms from MSCI indexes could trigger between $10 billion and $15 billion in outflows. The estimate is based on a preliminary list of 39 affected companies with a combined float-adjusted market capitalization of roughly $113 billion.
Potential impact on major crypto treasury firms
BitcoinForCorporations cited analysis indicating that Strategy, the firm led by Michael Saylor, could face approximately $2.8 billion in outflows if excluded from MSCI benchmarks. Strategy alone accounts for about 74.5% of the total float-adjusted market capitalization among the impacted companies.
Independent analyst estimates place total potential outflows at around $11.6 billion across all affected firms. Such selling pressure could weigh heavily on crypto prices, which have already been trending lower for nearly three months.
At the time of writing, a petition opposing MSCI’s proposal had gathered 1,268 signatures, reflecting growing industry concern over the potential consequences.
Debate over MSCI’s balance sheet criteria
MSCI announced in October that it was consulting investors on whether companies holding the majority of their balance sheet in crypto assets should be excluded from its indexes.
MSCI benchmarks play a critical role in global markets, as they guide the holdings of passive investment funds. Any exclusion can therefore have meaningful implications for a company’s access to capital.
BitcoinForCorporations argues that using a single balance sheet metric is an unfair way to assess whether a company qualifies as an operating business. The group says such a rule would remove firms even if their customers, revenue streams, operations and business models remain unchanged.
The organization has urged MSCI to withdraw the proposal and continue classifying companies based on core business activity, financial performance and operational fundamentals rather than asset composition alone.
MSCI is expected to publish its final decision by January 15, with any approved changes scheduled to take effect during the February 2026 index review.
Industry opposition continues to grow
Resistance to the proposal has intensified in recent weeks. On December 5, Nasdaq-listed Strive called on MSCI to allow market participants to decide whether they want exposure to Bitcoin-holding companies through passive funds.
Shortly afterward, Strategy submitted a letter warning that the proposed rule change would introduce bias against crypto as an asset class, undermining MSCI’s role as a neutral index provider.
As the deadline for MSCI’s decision approaches, investors and crypto-linked firms are watching closely for signals on whether the index provider will adjust or abandon the proposal.
