Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo compares Bitcoin’s market cycle to the four seasons, warning that the current “fall” phase is typically a time for investors to lock in gains before a potential downturn.
In a recent episode of the Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Galindo said Bitcoin’s historical performance shows a pattern of three strong years followed by one weaker year. He urged investors to treat this period as “harvest time” and take profits ahead of a possible crypto winter.
“We are in the fall season right now,” he explained. “Fall is the time for harvest. It’s the point where you want to take gains, but the question is how long fall lasts and when winter begins.”
This seasonal analogy reflects a growing acceptance among major financial institutions that Bitcoin follows a cyclical structure similar to commodities or liquidity-driven macro cycles.
Bitcoin Dip Signals Technical Weakness
On November 5, Bitcoin fell below $99,000, dropping under its 365-day moving average. According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, this metric is a key indicator of long-term market direction. The dip was widely viewed as a bearish signal and, according to Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima, officially marked the start of a “technical bear market.”
Wintermute, a major crypto market-maker, said in a recent report that the main drivers of crypto liquidity—stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries—have all slowed, contributing to weaker market conditions.
Institutions Still Treat Bitcoin as a Macro Hedge
Despite recent volatility, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. Michael Cyprys, head of U.S. brokers and asset managers at Morgan Stanley Research, said large investors increasingly view Bitcoin as digital gold or a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. He noted that spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have made it easier for institutions to gain exposure.
Institutional adoption tends to move slowly due to internal processes and risk controls, but Cyprys said regulatory improvements and ETF infrastructure have accelerated inflows. Current data from SoSoValue shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs holding more than $137 billion in net assets, while spot Ether ETFs hold $22.4 billion.
