Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment has weakened since the sharp downturn on Oct. 10. The chances of a short-term rally above $100,000 now appear increasingly slim as market momentum fades.
Following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut on Wednesday, Bitcoin
BTC $89,995
struggled to recover. Analysts now expect BTC to remain below $100,000 through the end of 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Prediction markets give Bitcoin only a 30% chance of breaking $100,000 before Jan. 1.
- Corporate Bitcoin buying has slowed, reducing support for any near-term rebound.
- BTC faces resistance near $94,000, with a potential climb only into the $98,000 liquidity area.
Prediction Markets See Only 30% Chance of $100K Breakout
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi overwhelmingly expect Bitcoin to stay under the $100,000 mark over the next several weeks.
As of Dec. 11, Kalshi participants give BTC about a 34% chance of crossing $100,000 before Dec. 31, while Polymarket places the odds lower at 29%.
Bitcoin reached a December high of $94,600 on Tuesday. The last time BTC traded above $100,000 was on Nov. 13.
Recent macro uncertainty and a slowdown in institutional Bitcoin accumulation have weighed on price action. Data from Capriole Investments shows a steady decline in the number of companies adding BTC to their treasuries, suggesting institutional appetite may be weakening.
Despite this, prediction market odds show that large Bitcoin sales by treasury companies remain unlikely. Meanwhile, there is still a high probability—around 65%—that these firms will continue making routine BTC purchases this week.
Last week, Strategy significantly increased its treasury to 660,624 BTC after acquiring 10,624 coins worth roughly $962.7 million. The firm is on pace to match last year’s buying totals.
Bitcoin’s Upside Could Stall Near $98,000
Bitcoin continues to trade within an ascending triangle pattern on lower time frames, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. Analysts note that BTC is pushing into the resistance zone between the yearly open at $93,300 and the $94,000 level.
A break and sustained move above $94,000 could open the door to the triangle’s measured target near $108,000. However, analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes a more realistic scenario is a move only toward the previous support region around $98,000, where liquidity remains concentrated.
To attempt a retest of the $98,000–$100,000 zone, buyers will first need to push BTC decisively above $94,589.
