JPMorgan has raised its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce, pointing to sustained and strengthening demand from both central banks and investors. The bank maintained its bullish outlook despite the recent spike in price volatility across precious metals.
Gold and silver both saw sharp pullbacks late last week after rallying rapidly to stretched levels. The correction was partly driven by a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which pressured dollar-denominated commodities.
Despite the pullback, JPMorgan analysts said the broader environment continues to support higher gold prices. They argued that long-term momentum remains intact and described their medium-term outlook as firmly bullish, driven by what they see as a structural diversification trend among global investors.
Central bank buying underpins higher gold forecast
A key factor behind JPMorgan’s upgraded forecast is stronger-than-expected buying from the official sector. Central banks purchased around 230 tonnes of gold in the fourth quarter, lifting total purchases for 2025 to approximately 863 tonnes, even as prices moved above $4,000 per ounce.
Looking ahead, the bank expects central bank demand to remain elevated at around 800 tonnes in 2026. Analysts said this reflects ongoing reserve diversification, a trend they believe still has room to run.
Investor demand has also accelerated. JPMorgan highlighted rising gold ETF holdings, solid physical demand for bars and coins, and increased portfolio allocations to gold as protection against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
“Gold continues to function as a dynamic, multi-layered portfolio hedge, and investor demand has exceeded our previous expectations,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote. They added that combined demand from central banks and investors is now expected to be sufficient to drive gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Rally seen as structural, not overstretched
While acknowledging the speed of gold’s rally, the analysts pushed back against concerns that prices are approaching unsustainable levels. Their analysis suggests that demand remains well above the historical threshold needed to keep the market tightening, even at higher price levels.
They noted that although rising prices naturally thin liquidity, the structural drivers behind the gold rally are not yet at risk of reversing under their own weight.
More cautious outlook for silver
JPMorgan struck a more cautious tone on silver following its sharp surge and subsequent pullback. Unlike gold, silver lacks consistent support from central bank buying, making it more vulnerable to deeper near-term corrections.
The analysts said silver forecasts carry a high margin of error but still expect the metal to establish a higher trading floor in the $75 to $80 per ounce range. They added that silver is unlikely to give back all of its recent gains, even after its rapid catch-up rally relative to gold.
Over the longer term, JPMorgan expects higher prices to reshape silver market fundamentals. The bank said rising prices could gradually alter supply and demand dynamics, easing the deficit that helped drive silver’s recent surge.
