ndonesia is expected to record a trade surplus of around $3.2 billion in July, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday. The positive balance is likely driven by falling imports, which helped offset slower export growth.
The projected July surplus would still be smaller than June’s $4.11 billion, which had been boosted by stronger exports ahead of U.S. tariffs taking effect in August.
A survey of 10 economists conducted by Reuters between August 22 and August 29 estimated that July exports rose 5.2% year-on-year, compared with an 11.3% increase in June. Imports, however, were expected to contract by 5% after growing 4.28% the previous month, marking their first decline since January 2025.
On Monday, Indonesia’s statistics bureau will also release consumer price index (CPI) data for August. Economists expect annual headline inflation to rise slightly to 2.48% in August from 2.37% in July. Month-on-month inflation is forecast to slow to 0.08%, down from 0.3% in July.
Bank Indonesia targets inflation within a range of 1.5% to 3.5% for 2025. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and government-regulated prices, is expected to ease marginally to 2.3% in August from 2.32% in July.
