Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to rise sharply over the next two years, forecasting a 14% increase to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 under its base-case scenario, according to a note released on Thursday. The bank also highlighted potential upside risks if demand broadens beyond central banks to include more private investors.
In its 2026 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs said structurally strong central bank buying and cyclical support from expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts should continue to underpin gold prices. The bank reiterated its recommendation to maintain long positions in gold. Spot gold was trading at $4,334.93 per ounce late Thursday.
Goldman also expects copper prices to consolidate in 2026, with an average price of $11,400 per metric ton. The outlook assumes ongoing uncertainty around tariffs until a potential U.S. announcement in mid-2026 regarding tariffs on refined copper starting in 2027. Despite the recent rally, the bank said copper remains its preferred industrial metal due to long-term demand driven by electrification, which accounts for nearly half of global copper consumption, alongside persistent supply constraints in mining.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was little changed at $11,721.50 per metric ton, after hitting a record high of $11,952 last week.
For oil, Goldman Sachs forecast further price declines, projecting average 2026 prices of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 per barrel for U.S. West Texas Intermediate. The bank said lower prices may be needed to rebalance the market, assuming no major supply disruptions or additional production cuts by OPEC. Brent crude was trading near $60.04 per barrel, while WTI was around $56.46.
The bank expects oil prices to reach their lowest levels around mid-2026, as markets anticipate rebalancing driven by steady demand growth, potential declines in Russian supply if the Ukraine war and sanctions continue, and slower output growth from non-OPEC producers outside Russia. Goldman noted that downside risks dominate its oil price outlook for 2026 and 2027.
However, Goldman expects oil prices to recover in late 2026 and into 2027 as markets begin pricing in a supply deficit and renewed investment in long-cycle production. The bank sees Brent crude rising to $80 per barrel and WTI to $76 per barrel by late 2028.
In natural gas markets, Goldman forecast European Title Transfer Facility prices at 29 euros per megawatt-hour in 2026 and 20 euros per megawatt-hour in 2027, levels aimed at encouraging higher gas demand. U.S. natural gas prices are expected to average $4.60 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $3.80 in 2027, supporting increased domestic production.
Goldman also warned that U.S. power spare capacity is likely to shrink further, as rapid growth in electricity demand and coal plant retirements outpace new renewable and natural gas capacity. This imbalance could lead to significantly higher power prices and a greater risk of outages, particularly in regions with a high concentration of data centers, which account for 72% of U.S. data centers despite representing just 1% of U.S. counties.
