Goldman Sachs Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $4,900 by End-2026
Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2026 gold price target to $4,900 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $4,300, citing sustained demand from central banks and Western investors as key drivers behind gold’s ongoing rally.
According to the bank, the 17% surge in gold prices since late August has been fueled mainly by strong inflows into Western exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and consistent central bank purchases — trends that Goldman considers “durable” and now embedded in its pricing model. The bank noted that speculative positioning has remained largely stable throughout the rally.
On Tuesday, gold traded near record highs of around $4,000 an ounce in Asia, supported by safe-haven demand amid political uncertainty in the U.S., Japan, and France. Additional support has come from continued buying by the People’s Bank of China and growing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year.
As of 08:42 GMT (04:42 ET), spot gold (XAU/USD) traded at $3,952.56, slightly down 0.2% on the day.
Despite the higher base price, Goldman maintained its forecast for a 23% increase in gold prices through the end of 2026, attributing much of the growth to steady central bank accumulation and a revival in ETF demand as global interest rates decline.
The bank expects emerging-market central banks to continue diversifying reserves, with average gold purchases of 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026, contributing roughly 19 percentage points to the projected price gain. In addition, Goldman predicts that Western ETF holdings will strengthen as the Fed cuts rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026, adding another five percentage points to overall price growth.
Goldman Sachs also pointed out that risks to its forecast lean to the upside, suggesting that private-sector diversification into gold — a relatively small market — could boost ETF demand beyond current expectations, potentially pushing prices even higher.
