Goldman Sachs: Two Key Factors Could Push Gold Beyond $4,000
Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that the risks of gold prices moving above its $4,000 per ounce mid-2026 forecast have increased. The bank highlighted two major catalysts that could drive prices higher.
Gold’s Strong Rally in 2025
Gold has surged 14% since late August, trading around $3,865. Year-to-date, the metal is up 47%, fueled by steady demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), central banks, and, to a smaller extent, speculative investors.
Limited Speculative Positioning
Goldman analyst Daan Struyven said that speculative positioning has played only a small role in the rally. Speculation accounted for just 1 percentage point of the 14% rise since August 26 and has not increased in recent weeks.
This indicates the rally is being driven mainly by long-term buyers, leaving room for more gains if speculative flows accelerate.
Western ETF Demand Surprises
The second factor is the unexpected surge in Western ETF inflows. Holdings increased by 109 tonnes in September, compared with Goldman’s forecast of just 17 tonnes based on falling U.S. interest rates.
Struyven said this confirms the bank’s view that private investors diversifying into gold is now becoming a reality. Because gold ETFs remain small compared to bond markets, even minor shifts away from fixed income could push gold prices significantly higher.
Goldman’s Outlook for Gold
Goldman reiterated that gold remains its “highest-conviction long commodity recommendation.” The outlook is supported by:
- Rising central bank demand
- Private sector diversification
- Gold’s role as a hedge in market downturns
The bank also noted that a global growth slowdown or renewed concerns about developed-market macroeconomic policy could further strengthen gold’s appeal.
