JPMorgan Lifts Long-Term Gold Forecast by 80% to $3,850
JPMorgan has sharply raised its long-term gold price forecast by 80%, setting a new target of $3,850 per ounce, up from $2,100. The bank said the revision reflects major shifts in global monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions that call for a new valuation framework.
The updated forecast is about 40% higher than market consensus, with JPMorgan continuing to recommend exposure to gold miners, expecting over 50% upside to its December 2027 fair value estimates.
Gold’s Repricing Driven by Unprecedented Global Changes
According to analysts led by Patrick Jones, the sharp revaluation of gold—which has climbed over 50% year-to-date—stems from “significant and unprecedented” developments following President Donald Trump’s re-election. These include strong central bank buying and renewed investor interest across equities and multi-asset portfolios.
“Our new framework leads us to upgrade our long-term gold price forecast by around 80% to $3,850 per ounce,” the analysts wrote. The model blends traditional valuation tools with alternative indicators suited for a world facing record U.S. debt levels.
New Model Highlights Key Drivers
JPMorgan’s updated approach includes five main components:
- Marginal cost and incentive pricing support.
- Implied pricing from royalty and streaming deals.
- Historical parallels from past reserve currency shifts.
- Large-scale investor diversification into gold.
- Gold’s implied store-of-wealth value amid rising debt.
The first two factors suggest a downside support range of $1,800–$2,500, while more extreme scenarios could lift gold prices to $6,000–$9,000 per ounce. The bank noted that during past reserve currency transitions in the 1930s and 1970s, gold surged around 90% on average.
If non-U.S. investors were to move just 0.5% of their U.S. assets into gold—roughly $70 billion annually—prices could reach $6,000 by 2029, according to the analysis. In a tail-risk scenario, the report said gold could exceed $9,000 per ounce as investors seek protection from soaring U.S. debt.
JPMorgan Stays Bullish on Gold Miners
The bank reiterated its bullish outlook on EMEA gold miners, naming AngloGold Ashanti its top pick based on valuation, share buybacks, and Nevada growth potential. Fresnillo remains a high-conviction Overweight due to its silver leverage, while Gold Fields was reinstated with a positive catalyst watch ahead of its November Capital Markets Day.
