German exports are projected to decline by 2.5% this year, as the sector struggles with weakening global demand, rising domestic costs, and growing protectionism, the BGA trade association warned on Thursday.
According to a recent survey, the BGA’s foreign trade climate indicator remains deep in negative territory, with many companies reporting flat or shrinking sales. “The situation is fragile. Foreign trade can remain the engine of our economy only if policymakers act decisively now,” said BGA president Dirk Jandura.
While exports are set to contract, imports are forecast to increase by 4.5% in 2025. Jandura highlighted escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and China, higher tariffs, stricter supply chain laws, and tighter export controls as key challenges undermining competitiveness.
U.S. tariffs, in particular, have become a major barrier. Some German exporters are being priced out of the American market entirely, according to Jandura. This pressure also led leading German economic institutes to cut their 2025 growth forecasts.
The U.S. was Germany’s largest trading partner in 2024, with bilateral goods trade reaching €253 billion ($277.84 billion). Nearly 60% of surveyed firms said they were negatively affected by recent measures, while 67% reported heavy additional costs from compliance requirements. Jandura warned these burdens are steadily eroding Europe’s competitive edge.
