A subsidiary of the crypto exchange Gemini has received a designated contract market license, allowing the company to bring prediction markets to the United States.
Gemini, founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, confirmed on Wednesday that its affiliate Gemini Titan secured approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). With this license, the company plans to enter the prediction-market industry and offer new trading products to U.S. users.
Gemini said that U.S. customers will soon be able to trade event contracts directly on its web platform. The exchange also plans to expand its derivatives lineup by adding crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts.
With this move, Gemini joins several other crypto firms that have begun offering prediction markets. These platforms allow users to speculate on the outcome of events ranging from sports to politics.
Shares of Gemini (GEMI) reacted sharply to the news. The stock rose 13.7% in after-hours trading on Wednesday, closing at $12.92 after ending the regular session down 0.7%. The license is seen as a potential boost for the company, which has struggled since going public. GEMI shares remain down more than 64% since debuting on September 12.
Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss said prediction markets could eventually grow as large as — or even larger than — traditional capital markets. Interest in such platforms has soared this year. Both Polymarket and Kalshi recorded record monthly volumes in November, and Kalshi recently closed a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation.
However, prediction markets continue to face regulatory challenges. Critics compare them to gambling, and several U.S. state regulators have launched enforcement actions against CFTC-regulated platforms, arguing that event contracts amount to unlicensed sports betting.
Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss said the firm first applied for the license in March 2020. The approval marks the end of a five-year process and the start of a new phase for the company.
The new prediction-market offering is part of Gemini’s broader plan to build a “super app” that integrates multiple crypto products. Cameron Winklevoss outlined this vision during the company’s recent earnings call, where Gemini reported losses tied to the high costs of going public.
Gemini now faces competition from other crypto companies expanding beyond simple trading services. Trust Wallet introduced its own prediction markets earlier this month, and Coinbase appears to be developing a similar platform in partnership with Kalshi.
