Deutsche Bank Raises Gold Price Forecast to $4,000 by 2026
Deutsche Bank analysts have raised their gold price forecast, saying the precious metal has more room to rise. They cited expectations of lower U.S. interest rates and political pressure on the Federal Reserve’s independence as key drivers.
In a note led by Michael Hsueh, the bank lifted its 2026 outlook for gold to an average of $4,000 per ounce, up from $3,700 previously. The revision came after spot gold prices touched $3,700 this week, supported by expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s latest policy meeting. Lower rates typically benefit gold by weakening the dollar and boosting its appeal as a safe-haven hedge against inflation.
Markets are also watching growing tensions between President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve. Trump has repeatedly criticized the central bank for not cutting rates fast enough and has targeted Chair Jerome Powell’s leadership. He has also tried to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, though a federal appeals court recently blocked that effort. The dispute could still head to the Supreme Court.
Deutsche Bank analysts warned that challenges to Fed independence and shifts in the makeup of the Federal Open Market Committee add uncertainty to future monetary policy decisions.
Meanwhile, global gold demand continues to rise. Official purchases remain about twice the pace of the 2011–2021 average, with China leading the way. Data shows that China’s gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 126.81% in July, while the People’s Bank of China has steadily increased its reserves. Overall, global gold demand climbed 3% year-over-year in the second quarter, while investment demand surged 78%.
Still, analysts cautioned that risks remain. Strong equity markets, clarity around Trump’s trade policies, tighter immigration measures, and the possibility of limited Fed rate cuts could weigh on prices in 2026. Seasonal weakness in the fourth quarter could also pressure gold.
