Is the current crypto market cycle ending after four years, or is it time to abandon the four-year cycle theory altogether?
Swan Bitcoin CEO and long-time Bitcoin advocate Cory Klippsten believes the traditional cycle may be finished. He argues that institutional adoption has likely “killed” the classic four-year pattern.
The topic has split Bitcoin analysts. Some claim the cycle is still intact, while others insist Bitcoin is now following a very different trajectory.
Bitcoin price contradicts typical cycle expectations
Bitcoin is halfway through what is usually its strongest month, yet the price is trading lower than it was on January 1. At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits near $92,170, down almost 13% in a week. This is far from the $250,000 year-end targets predicted by figures like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes.
If the cycle were still intact, Bitcoin’s October all-time high of $125,100 would mark the peak. Traditionally, Bitcoin hits a cycle top roughly 18 months after a halving event — in this case, the April 2024 halving — followed by a major correction and a long downtrend into the next halving.
Klippsten argues that if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high in 2026, or if it avoids a drawdown of more than 70%, it would confirm the cycle is over. He believes the launch of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 fundamentally changed the market.
ETF inflows change Bitcoin’s supply dynamics
Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe say spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are reshaping supply and demand. More than 60,000 BTC has been accumulated by ETFs in the past 18 months. Still, van de Poppe cautions against declaring the cycle dead, calling such conclusions “short-sighted.”
He admits this cycle has behaved differently but argues that October’s high could still be the peak. Bitcoin, he says, is in a transitional phase as the asset matures and its market structure evolves.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan shares the view that Bitcoin is breaking away from the four-year pattern. He noted that if Bitcoin had surged into late 2025 before falling, it would have supported the old theory — but the recent downturn suggests otherwise.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has also stepped back from his $250,000 prediction. He believes Bitcoin will only set new highs once markets fall sharply enough to push central banks back into aggressive money printing.
Macro data adds uncertainty
Pav Hundal from Swyftx says macroeconomic uncertainty makes it too early to call a cycle top. Any sign of falling inflation or weaker labor data could revive rate-cut hopes and support Bitcoin.
The odds of a December rate cut have now dropped to 40.9%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Hundal says the market is “fumbling in the dark” until clearer data arrives and emphasizes that this uncertainty affects all risk assets, not just Bitcoin.
A possible five-year cycle?
Some analysts argue the four-year cycle never truly existed. The Bitcoin Therapist suggests Bitcoin has simply moved in line with the global business cycle.
Raoul Pal believes the global business cycle now runs on a five-year schedule, which could put Bitcoin’s next major peak in 2026.
Crypto analyst Jesse Eckel agrees, saying that in hindsight, it will be obvious the market was heading toward a 2026 bull run — and that “counting to four was never an investment strategy.”
Or is the four-year cycle alive and ending now?
Others insist the traditional cycle is still valid.
Analyst Rekt Capital said in July that only a small window remained before the current cycle peaked. However, he also noted it may take time to determine whether this cycle became extended.
At Token2049, Gemini’s Saad Ahmed said repeated cycles are likely to continue because human behavior drives markets — enthusiasm rises, leverage builds, then a crash resets everything.
Glassnode also reported earlier this year that Bitcoin’s price action still mirrored its historical halving structure.
Most recently, analyst Colin Talks Crypto warned that without a quick rebound, Bitcoin may already be entering a deeper corrective phase or even the next bear market.
