Oil futures slipped on Friday as Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, easing geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment was also weighed by expectations that OPEC+ will agree to raise output this weekend.
By 0730 GMT, Brent crude futures had declined 35 cents (0.51%) to $68.45 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 25 cents (0.37%) to $66.75. Trading volumes remained light due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
According to a report from Axios, the U.S. is preparing to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran next week. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed that Tehran remains committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which helped ease concerns over a possible escalation in regional conflict.
“Thursday’s news that Washington may resume nuclear talks with Iran, combined with Araqchi’s reassurance that cooperation with the U.N.’s atomic agency hasn’t been completely suspended, significantly reduces the immediate risk of renewed hostilities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.
Araqchi’s statement followed Iran’s move to pass a law suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) just a day earlier.
Hari added that any price correction in oil markets might be delayed until Monday, when U.S. markets reopen and traders digest the outcome of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to agree to a 411,000 barrels-per-day output increase for August.
OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producers, is aiming to boost output to recapture market share, according to four sources who spoke to Reuters.
Tariff Uncertainty Returns
At the same time, uncertainty over U.S. trade policy resurfaced as the 90-day pause on higher tariffs nears its July 9 expiration.
President Donald Trump said Thursday that starting Friday, the U.S. would send letters to trading partners, detailing new tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30%. Each batch of letters will reportedly be sent to 10 countries at a time, marking a shift away from the earlier strategy of pursuing individual trade deals.
Despite initial efforts, several key U.S. trade partners, including the European Union and Japan, have not yet reached agreements with Washington.
Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed new sanctions targeting a network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil, as well as a Hezbollah-linked financial institution.
On the diplomatic front, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with President Trump and other U.S. officials at the White House to discuss de-escalation strategies with Iran, according to media reports.
Trump also stated that he is open to meeting with Iranian representatives “if necessary.”
Demand Outlook Lifts Long-Term Forecasts
In a separate note, Barclays raised its Brent crude price forecasts, citing stronger demand projections. The bank now expects Brent to average $72 per barrel in 2025—a $6 increase—and $70 in 2026, up $10 from previous estimates.
