Yardeni Research is reaffirming its most ambitious long-term outlook. The firm is keeping its forecast that gold will rise to $10,000 an ounce and that the S&P 500 will reach 10,000 by the end of 2029.
Yardeni does not assign a specific valuation to gold. However, the firm explains that it turned bullish when gold first climbed above $2,000 an ounce last year. Strong central-bank buying, especially after Russia’s reserves were frozen in 2022, played a major role in that shift.
As gold pushed above $3,000 this year, Yardeni identified a rising price channel. That trend suggested a “reasonable price target” of $4,000 by year-end. Now that prices have consolidated above that level, the firm expects the next move higher to start by mid-2026. Its target for the end of 2026 is $5,000.
The long-term path remains at the core of its thesis. Yardeni’s note states, “We are still targeting a gold price of $10,000 by the end of 2029, when we expect the S&P 500 to trade at a record 10,000.”
The firm adds that gold and the S&P 500 can be inversely correlated in shorter cycles. Even so, their long-term trends have moved almost in parallel.
Yardeni’s latest outlook also touches on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other alternative assets. The research firm maintains that it still has no valuation framework for Bitcoin. It notes that Bitcoin has been called “digital gold,” while Yardeni has also described it as “digital tulips.”
Even so, the firm recognizes Bitcoin’s global, 24/7 trading and the growing influence of regulated investment products. Bitcoin rose on Wednesday after reports that Vanguard will allow crypto ETFs and mutual funds to trade on its platform. This marks a reversal from the stance of its previous CEO, who said the company would never offer Bitcoin-related products.
Yardeni also highlights the GENIUS Act. President Donald Trump signed the legislation in July, setting new rules for issuing stablecoins backed by liquid U.S. assets. Yardeni links this policy shift to earlier weakness in Bitcoin’s price, arguing that stablecoins can reduce demand for Bitcoin transactions.
The note also references Cathie Wood’s updated Bitcoin forecast of $1.2 million for 2030. Her target was lowered from $1.5 million as stablecoins are “usurping” some of the use cases she expected Bitcoin to fill in emerging markets.
