Silver has delivered an exceptional performance in recent months, with price gains unfolding at a pace that would normally take months—or even years—to materialize. Analysts have described the move as unusually powerful, highlighting how rapidly the metal has advanced.
Silver futures are already up more than 25% year to date, a move that stands out as highly uncommon. A defining feature of this rally has been the growing influence of retail investors, which has helped differentiate silver from other precious metals and the wider commodities complex.
Silver rally stronger than expected
According to Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer, the rally has gone well beyond expectations—even for a bank that was already constructive on silver’s outlook.
Widmer noted that while Bank of America had been bullish on silver into 2026, the recent surge has been far more aggressive than anticipated. He also pointed to a sharp rise in realized volatility, observing that such explosive moves are typically followed by corrections. This time, however, pullbacks have remained relatively shallow.
One of the most notable shifts during the rally has been the changing mix of investors pushing prices higher. Widmer highlighted a decline in net non-commercial futures positioning, suggesting that retail participation—rather than traditional speculative flows—has become a more dominant driver of silver prices.
Bank of America said many retail investors are motivated by concerns over fiat currencies and are drawn to meme-driven narratives that portray silver as “real money” and a hedge against broader systemic risks.
Despite acknowledging the strength of the rally, Widmer cautioned that silver prices have moved well beyond levels supported by underlying fundamentals. He estimated that a fair-value price for silver currently sits closer to $60 per ounce and warned that elevated volatility could lead to further sharp price swings. Even so, the bank does not rule out the possibility of much higher prices under specific conditions.
Could silver reach $170?
Historically, silver prices have been influenced by factors such as the U.S. dollar, global industrial output, and ETF inflows. Widmer said that if retail investors continue to increase exposure at the same pace seen in the third quarter of 2025, the rally could extend significantly.
Under that scenario, Bank of America believes silver could potentially climb to $170 per ounce over the next two years, though Widmer stressed this outcome is not the bank’s base case and would require sustained and aggressive retail inflows.
He added that the outlook highlights the growing impact of retail flows on the silver market. Beyond price momentum, Bank of America also emphasized silver’s renewed appeal as a hedge against broader monetary uncertainty. Ongoing concerns around fiat currencies, the expansion of crypto and stablecoins, and potential strains on traditional banking systems are reinforcing silver’s status as a tangible, non-digital store of value for retail investors.
