BNP Paribas analysts have initiated coverage of Tesla stock with a bearish “Underperform” rating and a $307 price target, implying a potential 29% downside from current levels. The outlook was shared in a research note to clients on Thursday, reflecting the bank’s cautious stance on Tesla’s valuation and future growth prospects.
The French investment bank noted that Tesla’s AI-driven businesses, including Robotaxi and Optimus, currently generate no sales yet account for roughly 75% of its $1.02 trillion valuation estimate. BNP Paribas described its valuation model as “optimistic” toward both emerging ventures, acknowledging the speculative nature of these assumptions.
“Our bull-case DCF extends through 2040 and supports a maximum valuation of $2.7 trillion,” the analysts wrote. “We then discount those cash flows by milestone probabilities to reach our base-case valuation of $1.02 trillion — which still represents an ambitious interpretation of Tesla’s future.”
According to the bank, Tesla’s risk-to-reward profile appears unfavorable, with Wall Street’s 2026 consensus forecasts viewed as “far too optimistic.”
Even under BNP Paribas’s base-case scenario, the model assumes ambitious growth targets, including:
- An active Robotaxi fleet of around 525,000 units by 2030,
- 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and
- 11 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions by the end of 2030.
The analysts cautioned that their own 2026 free cash flow (FCF) estimate of about $225 million is $4 billion below market consensus, arguing that current projections underestimate Tesla’s margin pressures. They highlighted challenges stemming from depreciation and amortization costs tied to AI and software investments as the Robotaxi and Optimus programs enter early commercialization — factors expected to weigh further on gross profitability.
“While we remain optimistic about Tesla’s long-term innovation, we see significant near-term downside to Street expectations,” BNP Paribas concluded.
