Bitcoin’s price swings are steadily easing, with the cryptocurrency showing lower volatility than Nvidia in 2025 — a trend that Bitwise expects to continue into 2026 as institutional adoption accelerates.
According to Bitwise, Bitcoin’s volatility has declined consistently over the past decade, reflecting a maturing asset class supported by a broader and more diversified investor base. The firm said this shift is largely driven by the growth of institutional products such as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Bitwise noted that Bitcoin’s reduced volatility signals a gradual “derisking” of the asset as traditional financial players gain exposure through regulated investment vehicles.
Bitcoin now less volatile than Nvidia
Bitcoin’s price has moved about 68% between its 2025 low of roughly $75,000 in April and its peak near $126,000 in early October.
By comparison, Nvidia experienced far sharper swings, with its share price surging around 120% from a low near $94 in early April to a 2025 high of $207 in late October. This contrast highlights how Bitcoin’s price behavior has become more stable relative to high-growth technology stocks.
While Nvidia shares have outperformed Bitcoin this year — rising about 27% year to date — Bitcoin has slipped roughly 8% since the start of the year as crypto markets have increasingly decoupled from equities.
Bitwise expects this divergence to persist, forecasting that Bitcoin will remain less volatile than Nvidia throughout 2026.
Institutional adoption reshapes Bitcoin’s market profile
Bitwise attributes Bitcoin’s declining volatility to deeper institutional participation. The firm expects more traditional financial institutions, including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch, to expand into crypto-related offerings.
It also anticipates increased allocations to spot crypto ETFs and accelerated onchain development in 2026, further strengthening market depth and liquidity.
In addition, Bitwise expects supportive regulatory trends to continue, making it easier for companies to adopt crypto and integrate digital assets into their operations.
Bitwise forecasts new Bitcoin all-time high
Despite Bitcoin’s calmer price action, Bitwise remains bullish on its long-term outlook. The firm predicts a new all-time high for Bitcoin and argues that the traditional four-year crypto cycle is losing influence.
According to Bitwise, factors such as the halving cycle, interest rate shifts and leverage-driven boom-and-bust patterns are becoming less dominant than in previous market cycles.
The firm also expects crypto-related equities to outperform traditional technology stocks. While tech shares have gained roughly 140% over the past three years, Bitwise said crypto equities have delivered even stronger performance.
