Recent data shows that traders aggressively bought the latest Bitcoin dip, but heavy selling from large holders overwhelmed demand. With $2.78 billion in whale distribution weighing on price action, Bitcoin now faces growing pressure to hold above the $86,000 level.
Bitcoin slipped below $86,000 on Monday, extending losses driven by a clear liquidity imbalance. While smaller market participants continued to buy into the decline, larger entities used the renewed demand to exit positions, keeping downside momentum intact.
Whale selling outweighs dip buying
Market data reveals a sharp contrast between buyer and seller behavior. Retail and mid-sized Bitcoin wallets generated approximately $474 million in cumulative buy-side volume. In contrast, whale wallets offloaded roughly $2.78 billion worth of BTC over the same period.
Smaller wallets, typically holding between $0 and $10,000, accumulated a net volume delta of $169 million as they consistently bid into weakness. Mid-sized participants, with holdings between $1,000 and $100,000, added another $305 million in net spot exposure in an attempt to anticipate a market rebound.
However, this buying activity proved insufficient to counter the scale of whale-driven selling. Large holders, controlling wallet balances between $100,000 and $10 million, remained firmly in control of the sell-side, creating persistent downward pressure on price.
This imbalance highlights a liquidity mismatch in the market. Retail traders appear to view prices below $100,000 as a long-term opportunity, while whales treat the same zone as an exit point to reduce exposure.
Short-term holders sell at a loss
On-chain data also points to rising stress among short-term Bitcoin holders. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the seven-day moving average of the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has fallen below 1, hovering near 0.99.
This indicates that coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a loss on average, a condition often associated with local capitulation phases. Historically, such periods mark heightened selling pressure, but they do not guarantee an immediate price reversal.
Adler noted that a more sustainable recovery typically begins only after SOPR moves back above 1 and holds there, signaling that demand has started to absorb excess supply.
Bitcoin risks a move toward lower liquidity levels
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s market structure has weakened further. BTC has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, swept the monthly volume-weighted average price, and confirmed a bearish break of structure below the $87,600 level.
With the short-term bullish trend invalidated, attention has shifted toward lower liquidity zones. The next key support sits near the $83,800 swing low. If selling pressure continues, a deeper move toward the quarterly lows around $80,600 cannot be ruled out.
For now, both order flow and on-chain indicators suggest that the market may require more time before a durable bottom can be confirmed.
