Analyst: Bitcoin May Never Drop Below $100K Again as US–China Tensions Ease
Improving U.S.–China relations and a shifting macroeconomic environment could mark a major turning point for Bitcoin, according to analysts who believe the world’s leading cryptocurrency “may never go below $100K again” if current market momentum continues.
Trade Breakthrough Lifts Market Sentiment
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said that last week’s market fears have turned to optimism after reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested China would suspend rare-earth export controls for one year and purchase large volumes of U.S. soybeans. In return, Washington would reportedly drop its 100% tariff threat.
The final details of the deal are expected following the Trump–Xi summit in Korea on Thursday. The announcement has already pushed the USD/CNH exchange rate toward year-to-date lows, signaling stronger confidence in global markets.
Bitcoin Strengthens as Sentiment Improves
As investor sentiment improved, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio climbed back above levels seen before the October 10 tariff shock. Kendrick noted that a sustained break above 30 would confirm that fear has subsided from the market.
He highlighted ETF inflows as a critical factor to confirm the rebound, pointing out that more than $2 billion exited U.S. gold ETFs late last week.
“It would confirm a more positive Bitcoin backdrop if even half of that re-entered Bitcoin ETFs between Monday and Wednesday,” Kendrick said, adding that Bitcoin ETF flows have lagged behind gold but are now “due for a catch-up.”
ETF Flows and Fed Policy Key to the Next Move
Kendrick emphasized that a new all-time high for Bitcoin would provide “absolute confirmation” of a long-term shift, marking the end of the halving-cycle dominance and establishing ETF inflows as the primary price driver.
He also pointed to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected despite limited data visibility. The analyst said the focus will soon turn to the next Fed Chair appointment, which could be bullish for Bitcoin due to “implied Fed independence risks.”
Bitcoin Poised for a Historic Breakout
Kendrick concluded that if this week’s events unfold positively—including strong earnings from mega-cap tech companies—Bitcoin could solidify its breakout above $100K and potentially never fall below that level again.
