Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year cycle remains intact, but the forces driving it have shifted away from the halving toward politics, liquidity and election cycles, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast, Thielen said claims that the four-year cycle is “dead” miss the bigger picture. While the cycle still exists, it is no longer defined by Bitcoin’s programmed supply cuts. Instead, it is increasingly influenced by U.S. elections, central bank policy decisions and broader liquidity conditions shaping risk asset markets.
Thielen highlighted that major Bitcoin market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021 all occurred during the fourth quarter. He argued these peaks align more closely with presidential election cycles and periods of heightened political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halving events, which have shifted across the calendar over time.
He added that political uncertainty often increases ahead of elections, particularly when there is a risk that the ruling party could lose seats in Congress, potentially limiting its ability to push policy agendas. Such uncertainty, Thielen said, can have a significant impact on investor behavior and capital flows.
Fed rate cuts fail to spark Bitcoin rally
Thielen’s comments come as Bitcoin struggles to regain upside momentum following the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut. While rate cuts have traditionally supported risk assets, he noted that today’s market environment is different.
Institutional investors now play a dominant role in crypto markets and tend to act more cautiously, especially when policy signals from the Federal Reserve remain unclear and liquidity conditions are tightening. As a result, Bitcoin has failed to see the strong inflows that typically fuel sharp rallies.
Capital flowing into Bitcoin has also slowed compared with last year, limiting the buying pressure needed for a sustained breakout. Without a clear improvement in liquidity, Thielen expects Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation phase rather than enter a new parabolic uptrend.
He suggested that investors should shift their focus away from halving-based timing models and instead monitor political catalysts, including U.S. elections, fiscal policy debates and changes in global monetary conditions.
Debate continues over Bitcoin’s cycle
The discussion follows comments from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who has argued that the traditional four-year crypto cycle is no longer relevant. Hayes believes Bitcoin market cycles have always been driven by global liquidity rather than fixed timelines, noting that past bull markets ended when liquidity tightened, particularly in U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan markets.
According to Hayes, the halving has been overstated as a primary driver of price cycles and is more coincidental than causal in shaping Bitcoin’s long-term market behavior.
