Will Bitcoin Price Drop in September or Rally Toward $124K?
Bitcoin closed August in the red for the first time since April, fueling fears of further weakness in September—a month historically associated with poor performance. Yet, analysts suggest BTC may be preparing for a rebound toward $124,500 instead of a seasonal sell-off.
September Effect vs. Bullish Setup
Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended September in the red for 8 of the past 12 years, averaging returns of around −3.8%. This “September Effect” mirrors trends in traditional markets, with the S&P 500 also averaging negative returns during the month since 1928.
Traders often lock in profits from summer rallies or reposition ahead of Q4, adding to seasonal selling pressure. However, some analysts argue that this year may break the cycle. In 2017, for example, Bitcoin dropped sharply in late August before reversing higher and starting its run to $20,000.
Now, Bitcoin appears to be repeating a similar pattern, consolidating between $105,000 and $110,000—a zone that has flipped from resistance into support.
Technical Indicators Point to Upside
Chart analysts highlight a “hidden bullish divergence,” where Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) has not declined as much as price. This suggests underlying buying strength despite the correction.
If BTC holds its base above $105,000, it could spark a rally targeting $124,500 in the next 4–6 weeks. Such a breakout would confirm bullish momentum and potentially set up another all-time high.
Macro Tailwinds: Weak Dollar & Fed Cuts
Beyond technicals, macroeconomic factors could help Bitcoin in September. The U.S. dollar is weakening as slowing economic data and anticipated Fed rate cuts weigh on sentiment. Analysts expect the dollar to slide another 8% this year.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to −0.25, its lowest in two years. A weaker dollar typically benefits Bitcoin and other risk assets.
According to market strategist Ash Crypto, “Two rate cuts mean trillions will flow into the crypto market. We are about to enter a parabolic phase where altcoins will explode 10x–50x.”
If this scenario plays out, September could defy history and mark the start of Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
