Bernstein has released one of its most bullish Bitcoin forecasts to date. The $800 billion asset manager now argues that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, long linked to halving events, is no longer the main driver of market behavior.
Institutional Demand Is Reshaping Bitcoin’s Market Cycle
According to insights shared by VanEck executive Matthew Sigel, Bernstein believes Bitcoin has entered a new, extended bull cycle powered by steady institutional inflows. This shift breaks the decade-old pattern where Bitcoin’s major peaks and corrections were tied to halving schedules.
The firm explains that recent market declines have not disrupted Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Instead, consistent ETF inflows—even during a nearly 30% correction—show that institutions are treating BTC as a strategic long-term asset, not a short-term trade. ETF outflows remained below 5%, reinforcing the strength of institutional accumulation.
With this new structural demand in place, Bernstein has raised its price projections. The firm now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026.
Bitcoin’s Path Toward Greater Stability
Bernstein’s forecast extends further. The firm predicts Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by 2027 and maintains a long-term target of $1 million per BTC by 2033.
Analysts credit this outlook to improving liquidity, stronger custody solutions, and widening institutional access. The report also cites rising demand following new crypto-friendly legislation in states like Indiana.
The firm highlights that institutional buying during corrections is creating a more resilient price structure. Long-term holders are countering retail-driven fear, leading to smaller drawdowns compared to earlier cycles. This dynamic suggests that halving events may lose influence as institutional flows take precedence.
Bitcoin’s Growing Role as a Store of Value
Bernstein also notes that institutional products encourage longer holding periods, helping stabilize market activity. The firm expects these trends to accelerate as more institutions gradually increase their Bitcoin allocations.
While Bitcoin is still early in its adoption curve, analysts argue it is increasingly competing with gold and even sovereign wealth strategies. This supports the ongoing narrative of Bitcoin emerging as digital gold, although some market observers—such as analyst Nate Geraci—believe its store-of-value status remains unproven.
Bernstein’s long-term view rests on the expectation that global investors will continue shifting from traditional stores of value to Bitcoin, especially as macro-economic uncertainty rises worldwide.
