Barclays Raises Nvidia Price Target to $200 on Strong Demand Signals
Barclays has increased its price target for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) from $170 to $200, citing solid demand signals throughout the company’s supply chain that suggest potential upside in the second half of the year.
The revised price target reflects a potential 38% gain from Nvidia’s closing price of $144.69 on June 16.
After conducting post-earnings checks within Nvidia’s supply chain, Barclays identified approximately $2 billion in potential revenue upside for July, compared to consensus estimates. Based on this, the firm raised its full-year Compute revenue forecast to $37 billion, up from $35.6 billion.
Although Blackwell chip production reached around 30,000 wafers per month in June—short of Barclays’ earlier projection of 40,000 wafers—the firm noted that utilization rates remain strong, and the overall tone from the supply chain is optimistic for the second half of 2025.
Blackwell Ultra, the next-generation product, remains on schedule, with mass production expected to begin in Q3.
System sales are also gaining momentum, accounting for 25% of revenue in July, and projected to rise to nearly 50% by October. Barclays believes both increased volume and Blackwell Ultra will contribute to stronger gross margins in the back half of the year.
As a result, Barclays raised its Compute revenue forecasts to $42 billion for Q3 and $48 billion for Q4, both ahead of previous expectations and broader market estimates.
The bank’s updated $200 price target is based on a 29x multiple of its revised 2026 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $6.86, up from the previous $6.43.
“Despite recent gains, Nvidia offers the highest upside among our covered names for 2H,” wrote Barclays analysts led by Tom O’Malley, reaffirming an Overweight rating on the stock. However, the firm continues to hold a Neutral stance on the broader U.S. semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sector.
Additionally, Barclays noted increased demand for Amazon’s Trainium 2, with supply currently able to fulfill around 70% of more than 2 million units requested, potentially adding $300 million in upside to this year’s ASIC revenue—though some of that may spill into 2026.
Meanwhile, TPU supply remained stable, with V7 entering production in May and third-quarter volumes expected to grow 20% quarter-over-quarter.
