Barclays has increased its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6,050 from 5,900, pointing to reduced trade-related uncertainty and expectations for more stable earnings growth by 2026.
This upgrade follows similar bullish revisions by Goldman Sachs, UBS Global Wealth Management in May, and more recently by RBC Capital Markets and Deutsche Bank.
The new projection suggests a potential gain of approximately 1.32% from the index’s latest closing level of 5,970.37.
In May, the S&P 500 enjoyed its strongest monthly performance since November 2023, gaining 6.2%, fueled by President Donald Trump’s softer stance on tariffs, strong corporate earnings, and easing inflation—factors that helped the market recover from April’s dip.
Barclays also rolled out its 2026 S&P 500 earnings per share estimate at $285, along with a year-end target of 6,700 for that year.
“Once the impact of tariffs fades through the rest of fiscal 2025, we anticipate earnings growth will return to a more typical pace in 2026,” Barclays analysts led by Venu Krishna wrote.
The firm noted that while tariffs in 2025 are not expected to escalate, indirect effects on economic growth and inflation could linger into 2026.
Barclays kept its 2025 EPS forecast unchanged at $262, despite continued pressure from tariff-related factors.
