Bitcoin shocked the market after breaking below the $90,000 level, triggering renewed fear across the crypto landscape. In the middle of the sell-off, BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes shared his outlook on the current downturn and issued a bold prediction that Bitcoin could still rally to $200,000 before the end of the year.
Hayes Remains Bullish Despite Bitcoin Crash
Hayes wrote in a recent blog post that Bitcoin could climb to $200,000 by year-end once the U.S. dollar liquidity cycle stabilizes. However, he warned that the price may fall further into the $80,000–$85,000 zone before any major rebound takes place.
According to Hayes, the latest Bitcoin decline is closely tied to reduced U.S. dollar liquidity. He pointed to shrinking inflows into ETFs and DATs as signs of tightening liquidity. Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s long-term value is driven by expectations of future fiat expansion, citing the U.S.–China tariff truce on April 9, 2025, as an example. Before the truce, the crypto market was under severe pressure, with Bitcoin sinking to multi-month lows during the trade war.
Once the tariff truce was announced, Bitcoin surged 21%, and other major assets such as Ether followed. Institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs also accelerated as dollar liquidity improved. Recently, Hayes said implied dollar liquidity has weakened again, contributing to Bitcoin’s fall from its all-time high of $126,000 to below $90,000.
It is also notable that Hayes sold a large portion of his crypto holdings during the downturn. As earlier reported, he offloaded nearly $5 million worth of ETH, ENA, and AAVE, while shifting attention to ZEC, which has outperformed many assets in recent months.
Mixed Outlook for Bitcoin’s Next Move
Other analysts have also weighed in on Bitcoin’s direction. Market strategist Benjamin Cowen suggested in an X post that Bitcoin could slide toward the $60,000 range by 2026. He based this view on Bitcoin nearing a bear-market pattern, which would be confirmed if the price touches the 200-week simple moving average, as seen in previous cycles.
However, not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. Analyst Ted Pillows argued on X that Bitcoin often performs best when the ISM sits near 50. With the latest reading at 48.7, he believes Bitcoin is not yet in a confirmed bear cycle.
Despite the steep drop below $90,000, some investors view the decline as an opportunity. Cameron Winklevoss, Co-Founder of Gemini, described the current price levels as a rare buying chance that may not come again. Meanwhile, institutional investors and large holders continue accumulating Bitcoin, even as fear and market uncertainty grow.
