Wall Street Analysts Say China Risks ‘Irrelevant’ as Nvidia Growth Outlook Strengthens
Wall Street analysts from Wolfe Research, Bank of America, and Citi remain bullish on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), asserting that the company’s growth trajectory is intact and that China export restrictions are largely “irrelevant” to its near-term financial performance.
At Wolfe Research, analyst Chris Caso said Nvidia’s recent disclosures during its GTC event point to “clear upside to current consensus estimates” for 2026 earnings. Wolfe projects roughly $300 billion in annual revenue from Nvidia’s Blackwell and Rubin chips next year — representing about 20% upside from prior expectations.
The firm now sees around $8 per share in 2026 earnings, valuing the stock at a reasonable 25x forward earnings multiple. Wolfe added that Nvidia’s expansion is being powered by both volume growth and higher pricing, estimating average selling prices rising more than 50% between the Blackwell and Rubin product generations. A potential China-specific GPU relaunch, they said, could further strengthen sales momentum.
Wolfe also believes Nvidia’s data center revenue could surpass current forecasts by as much as $85 billion, translating to a 30% earnings upside versus its prior estimates.
Bank of America and Citi Reinforce Bullish Outlook
Bank of America reaffirmed its buy rating on Nvidia, with analyst Vivek Arya describing recent doubts around AI spending as “healthy but overstated.” Arya highlighted that Nvidia’s $500 billion in data center orders for 2025–2026 underscores robust demand and projected 70% year-on-year earnings growth.
“The noise around China restrictions is unhelpful but irrelevant to Nvidia’s near and medium-term outlook,” Bank of America said, adding that the company’s valuation remains “undemanding given its long-term growth potential.”
Meanwhile, Citi analyst Atif Malik urged investors to “buy into the print” ahead of Nvidia’s November 19 earnings report. Malik said Citi’s models already exclude China data center sales, yet the bank maintains an Upside 30-day short-term view on Nvidia, expecting “beat and raise” results.
Overall, the consensus among major Wall Street firms remains that Nvidia’s AI dominance, data center demand, and pricing power far outweigh any short-term geopolitical concerns.
