Wolfe Research believes Tesla’s robotaxi business could evolve into a powerful long-term growth driver, with a top-down model suggesting annual revenue may reach as much as $250 billion by 2035. The forecast is based on rising adoption of autonomous vehicles and a steadily expanding user base.
Wolfe analyst Emmanuel Rosner described 2026 as a “catalyst-rich year” for Tesla shares, as investors monitor progress across robotaxi deployment, Optimus humanoid robot production, and the rollout of unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.
“If successful, the long-term return on investment could be very attractive,” Rosner said in a research note.
According to Wolfe’s model, robotaxi revenue could climb to $250 billion by 2035, assuming 30% penetration of autonomous vehicles, a 50% market share for Tesla, and average pricing of $1 per mile. Under these assumptions, the robotaxi business could support roughly $2.75 trillion in equity value, or about $900 billion when discounted back, equivalent to more than $250 per share. Rosner added that Optimus and potential FSD licensing could provide further upside.
In the near term, however, the analyst remains cautious on Tesla’s fundamentals and forecasts earnings below consensus expectations for 2026 and 2027. He cited margin pressure from higher input costs, pricing dynamics, and adjustments to Tesla’s FSD monetization strategy.
Rosner also expects Tesla’s artificial intelligence initiatives, including robotaxis and Optimus, to weigh on earnings in 2026 as the company absorbs expansion costs. He estimates robotaxi-related gross losses of around $500 million next year, as Tesla scales its fleet to roughly 7,200 vehicles from about 250 at the end of 2025 and expands into seven additional markets in the first half of 2026.
Despite pricing expected to remain below competitors, Wolfe anticipates revenue growth driven by higher utilization. The firm projects robotaxi operations to reach gross breakeven by 2027, with potential revenue of around $30 billion by 2030.
For Optimus, Rosner noted that production is expected to begin in late 2026 and that the ramp-up could be challenging, limiting meaningful revenue contribution until late 2027 or later.
Beyond autonomous vehicles, the analyst highlighted strong momentum in Tesla’s energy storage business. Wolfe expects deployments to rise sharply as new capacity comes online, even as near-term margins face pressure from competition and tariffs.
Overall, Rosner said that while near-term earnings risks remain, Wolfe stays “tactically constructive” on Tesla, pointing to a steady pipeline of potential catalysts ahead.
