Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing delays in U.S. crypto legislation that are reducing the likelihood of near-term regulatory catalysts. These catalysts were expected to drive stronger ETF inflows and accelerate institutional adoption across the cryptocurrency market.
According to the bank, progress on U.S. crypto market structure regulation has stalled in the Senate. The proposed Clarity Act now faces diminishing chances of approval due to disagreements over stablecoin rules and a limited timeframe for passage before 2026.
As a result, Citigroup revised its outlook, cutting its Bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000, while lowering its Ethereum forecast to $3,175 from $4,304.
Citi strategist Alex Saunders noted that regulatory developments remain a key driver for long-term adoption and capital inflows, but warned that the window for meaningful legislative progress this year is narrowing.
The bank also outlined different market scenarios. In a recessionary environment, Bitcoin could decline to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. On the other hand, in a bullish scenario supported by stronger investor demand, Bitcoin could rise to $165,000 and Ethereum to $4,488.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $74,298, while Ethereum hovered around $2,345.
Citigroup highlighted that Ethereum’s performance will likely remain closely tied to user activity levels, which have recently shown weakness. However, growing trends in stablecoins and tokenization could help support future demand and network usage.
Looking ahead, the chances of passing comprehensive crypto legislation may decline further if Democrats gain additional seats in the U.S. Congress during the upcoming midterm elections. Lawmakers remain divided on how to regulate the sector, particularly regarding issues such as stablecoins and market oversight.
To secure approval, the bill would require backing from at least seven Democratic senators. Some lawmakers are pushing for provisions that would prevent elected officials from benefiting financially from crypto-related ventures, a topic that has gained attention in recent political debates.
Citigroup expects Bitcoin to trade within a range in the near term, with the $70,000 level seen as a key support zone, particularly as markets await further updates on regulatory developments.
