President Donald Trump Says U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply, Surplus Possible in 2026
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that America’s trade deficit has fallen significantly due to his tariff policies and that the country could record a trade surplus in 2026 — its first in decades.
In a post on social media, President Trump stated that the U.S. trade deficit “has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries.” However, he did not clarify the specific time frame or methodology behind the 78% figure.
He also added that the trade balance “will go into positive territory during this year,” signaling confidence that the U.S. could soon shift from deficit to surplus.
Trade Deficit Data Shows Sharp Swings in 2025
Official data show that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit narrowed to $27.62 billion in October 2025, down from a record $140.5 billion in March 2025 — a decline of roughly 80% based on government figures and market calculations.
However, the deficit widened again in November, rising to $56.82 billion.
President Trump’s comments came ahead of the release of December trade data, which analysts expect to show a $55.50 billion trade surplus. If confirmed, this would mark the first monthly trade surplus since 1975, according to government records.
Despite recent improvements, the United States is still projected to post a trade deficit exceeding $800 billion for full-year 2025. This compares with a record $1.2 trillion deficit in 2024. The elevated 2025 deficit largely reflects a surge in imports during the first quarter, when companies accelerated purchases before the implementation of Trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs in April.
Tariffs Reshape U.S. Trade Flows
The goods trade deficit alone is expected to remain near historic highs, close to $1.2 trillion.
In 2025, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on a broad range of imported goods, with rates ranging from 10% to as high as 50% across hundreds of countries. While some of the steepest tariffs were later reduced following trade negotiations and agreements, the policy shift contributed to a noticeable decline in imports — particularly from China.
U.S. goods imports from China fell to $288 billion during the January–November 2025 period, compared with $401 billion in the same period in 2024.
However, the drop in Chinese imports was largely offset by increased shipments from other Asian and European countries, according to government data, limiting the overall impact on the total trade balance.
