Oil Prices Steady as Markets Assess U.S.–Iran Talks and OPEC+ Supply Plans
Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors balanced the potential impact of upcoming U.S.–Iran nuclear talks with expectations of increased supply from OPEC+.
Brent crude futures edged up 3 cents to $67.78 per barrel in early trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 2 cents to $62.91 per barrel. There was no WTI settlement on Monday due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.
Oil Benchmarks Slip After Trump Comments
Both major oil benchmarks ended last week lower. Brent crude declined about 0.5%, while WTI fell roughly 1%. The losses followed remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting that Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran within the next month, which pressured prices.
The United States and Iran are set to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday. The negotiations, which resumed earlier this month, aim to address long-standing disputes over Iran’s nuclear program and prevent further military escalation.
According to reports, Iran is seeking a nuclear deal that would provide economic benefits for both countries. Potential areas of cooperation include energy and mining investments, as well as aircraft purchases.
Geopolitical Risks Keep Oil Market on Edge
Despite diplomatic efforts, analysts remain cautious about the likelihood of a breakthrough. Market participants expect both sides to maintain firm positions on key issues, raising doubts about a swift agreement.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials have indicated that Washington is preparing contingency plans in case negotiations fail, including the deployment of a second aircraft carrier to the region. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of possible retaliation against U.S. military bases if Iranian territory is targeted.
Rising geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices in recent sessions. At the same time, OPEC+ — the alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners — is reportedly considering resuming output increases from April after a three-month pause. The potential production boost is aimed at meeting peak summer demand and could limit further gains in crude prices.
Thin Liquidity and Volatility Ahead
Global financial markets are expected to remain quiet, with China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year holidays, alongside the U.S. holiday. Reduced trading volumes may lead to erratic price movements.
In the near term, oil price volatility is likely to be driven by geopolitical developments and inventory data. Traders will closely monitor the outcome of U.S.–Iran talks, as well as signals from OPEC+ regarding future production plans.
