Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin and Ethereum Forecasts, Warns of Further Downside
Standard Chartered has revised its short-term outlook for digital assets, cautioning that additional price declines may occur before a broader recovery later this year.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, described recent market performance as difficult and expects continued volatility in the coming months.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Could Face Further Capitulation
Kendrick warned that another wave of price weakness is possible. He now projects that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000, while Ethereum may fall toward $1,400 in the near term.
Although the latest sell-off has been significant, it has not mirrored the extreme conditions seen in 2022. Notably, no major crypto platforms have collapsed during the current downturn. According to Kendrick, this suggests that the digital asset market is gradually maturing and becoming more resilient.
Bitcoin ETF Holdings Decline Sharply
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have also weakened. Kendrick noted that Bitcoin ETF holdings have decreased in an orderly fashion, with average holdings now down about 25%.
He estimates that nearly 100,000 Bitcoin have been sold from ETFs since their October 2025 peak. With an average ETF purchase price near $90,000, many investors are currently sitting on substantial unrealized losses.
Given these conditions, Kendrick believes ETF investors are more inclined to reduce exposure rather than “buy the dip” in the current environment. As a result, Bitcoin could test or briefly move below the $50,000 level. If that occurs, Ethereum may find support around $1,400.
Macro Environment Adds Pressure
Broader macroeconomic factors are also weighing on digital assets. Mixed U.S. economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates before a potential leadership change in June have reduced appetite for risk assets.
These conditions may limit capital inflows into cryptocurrencies in the short term.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Constructive
Despite the near-term downgrade, Standard Chartered maintains a positive longer-term view on the crypto market.
Kendrick now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, revised down from a previous forecast of $150,000. Ethereum is projected to climb to $4,000, compared with an earlier target of $7,500. However, the bank’s long-term projections through 2030 remain unchanged.
The latest forecast highlights short-term caution but continued confidence in the structural growth of digital assets over the coming years.
