Danish obesity drugmaker Novo Nordisk faced a sharp negative market reaction on Wednesday after delivering a much weaker-than-expected outlook for 2026. The company warned that intensifying competition and mounting price pressure could weigh heavily on growth in the global weight-loss market.
The maker of Wegovy said on Tuesday that profits and sales could fall by as much as 13% this year, marking the first decline in several years. The outlook reflects rising price pressure in the United States, linked in part to policies pushed by Donald Trump, as well as fierce competition across the obesity treatment space.
The surprise warning, released after European markets closed, sent Novo Nordisk’s U.S.-listed shares down nearly 15%. The drop reversed earlier gains driven by strong demand for the company’s new oral version of Wegovy.
“Novo has delivered shocking guidance for 2026,” said Markus Manns, portfolio manager at Union Investment, which holds shares in both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. He noted that most investors had expected only a mid-single-digit decline in sales and profit, not a double-digit drop.
Shares of Eli Lilly and other obesity drug developers also slipped, as investors reassessed the increasingly crowded weight-loss market.
In a joint statement, Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar and chairman Lars Rebien Sorensen acknowledged that competition has intensified significantly. They said the company can no longer promise a return to the exceptional growth rates seen in recent years and must explore new ways to reach patients as market dynamics evolve.
Wegovy pill sales offer some relief
Novo Nordisk expects adjusted operating profit and adjusted sales, at constant exchange rates, to decline by between 5% and 13% this year. Sales grew 10% last year, while analysts had been forecasting an average decline of around 2% for 2026.
The company said its outlook was hurt by lower realized prices, particularly in the U.S., growing competition, and the expiry of patents on semaglutide — the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic — in several markets outside the United States. Novo is also facing pressure from compounded versions of GLP-1 drugs, with up to 1.5 million Americans estimated to be using copycat formulations.
Barclays said in a note that the guidance was worse than expected and predicted Novo’s Denmark-listed shares would open sharply lower. However, it added that some investors may view the outlook as conservative, pointing to the strong performance of the Wegovy pill as a potential offset.
Novo said weekly prescriptions for oral Wegovy reached about 50,000 by January 23, well above figures captured by standard market tracking data. Manns described the pill’s uptake, with many consumers paying out of pocket, as “a glimpse of hope.”
The profit warning brings to an end a multi-year stretch of double-digit growth for Novo Nordisk following the launch of Wegovy in 2021. That success fueled a global obesity drug boom and helped make Novo Europe’s most valuable listed company in 2024, with a market value of around $600 billion.
