U.S. natural gas futures fell sharply on Monday, sliding to a two-week low after prices dropped more than 20% as weather forecasts shifted decisively toward warmer conditions. The move followed a week of Arctic cold that had previously helped support the market.
The selloff accelerated after updated forecasts pointed to a pronounced temperature split across the United States in early February. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 6–10 day outlook, large parts of the country west of the Mississippi River are expected to see above-average temperatures between February 7 and February 11.
The warming trend is forecast to be strongest from California and the Pacific Northwest through the Rocky Mountains and into Texas and the central Plains. Confidence is highest across the central U.S., where winter cold is likely to give way to milder, more spring-like conditions. This shift is expected to significantly reduce heating demand in regions that typically account for a large share of winter natural gas consumption.
In contrast, the eastern U.S.—including the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Florida—is projected to remain colder than normal. However, cooler conditions in the East were not enough to counterbalance the bearish impact of widespread warming across the rest of the country. Areas along the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast are expected to sit near seasonal temperature averages, forming a transition zone between the two air masses.
The steep decline in prices underscores natural gas’s sensitivity to weather-driven demand, particularly during the winter heating season. Even small shifts in temperature outlooks can trigger outsized market reactions, highlighting ongoing volatility in the natural gas market.
