Gold prices could climb as high as $10,000 this year if monetary policy becomes more supportive and geopolitical pressures continue to weaken the U.S. dollar, according to SBG Securities. Analyst Adrian Hammond says gold is already in its “final leg,” with momentum now driven mainly by macroeconomic forces rather than mining-sector leverage.
In a note to clients, Hammond argued that holding gold equities no longer offers sufficient upside compared with owning physical bullion. With earnings already deeply “in the money,” he said rising gold prices now provide limited additional leverage for miners.
Previously, a 10% increase in gold prices from around $3,000 an ounce translated into roughly 30% earnings growth for producers. At current levels, however, the same move generates closer to 13% growth, leaving many major miners trading largely as direct proxies for bullion.
Higher-cost producers such as Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater still offer relatively more leverage, Hammond noted. Even so, he remains cautious on gold stocks due to rising risks from cost inflation, elevated capital spending, increased merger activity and growing resource nationalism. Despite this, he still sees 20% to 30% upside for gold bullion this year.
A major driver for gold remains expectations around U.S. interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts, but Hammond believes there is scope for more. He estimates that three cuts could push gold toward $7,000 by year-end, while a more dovish Federal Reserve could open the door to $10,000 gold.
However, he views holding rates steady as the more prudent outcome, warning that a weaker dollar is already feeding into U.S. inflation. Rising energy prices could intensify those pressures, potentially working against gold if prices run too far ahead of fundamentals.
That scenario raises the risk of gold overshooting fair value. Hammond cautioned that an overly dovish market narrative could backfire if policy remains tighter than investors expect. Still, he does not foresee a sharp correction, noting that structurally higher inflation should continue to support bullion over the long term.
Near-term volatility remains possible if political pressure for rate cuts intensifies while policymakers stay cautious. Yet demand fundamentals remain strong. Central bank buying continues to underpin prices, with global reserves rising by 45 tonnes in November. China’s official gold holdings reached a record 2,304 tonnes by the end of the third quarter of 2025, according to the People’s Bank of China.
Investment flows have also turned positive. Gold exchange-traded funds added about 16 million ounces in 2025, while speculative positioning on COMEX has grown increasingly bullish. Hammond said recent price strength reflects a weaker dollar and elevated political risk, and while short-term pullbacks are possible, the broader trend for gold still points higher.
