German consumer sentiment is expected to improve in February, supported by a sharp increase in income expectations following the recent minimum wage hike and easing concerns about inflation, according to a survey released on Wednesday.
The consumer sentiment index published by GfK in cooperation with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions rose to -24.1 points in February, up from -26.9 points in January. The reading exceeded economists’ expectations, as analysts polled by Reuters had forecast only a modest rise to -26.0.
While households showed a moderate increase in their willingness to make purchases, partly due to signs that inflation pressures are easing, the survey found that improving income expectations were the main driver behind the stronger headline figure. Despite the improvement, overall consumer sentiment remains firmly in negative territory.
Germany’s hourly minimum wage rose to €13.90 at the start of 2026 and is set to increase further to €14.60 next year. The wage hikes have significantly boosted expectations around household income in Europe’s largest economy.
However, Rolf Buerkl, head of consumer climate at NIM, warned that the positive momentum may not last. He said ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential escalation of trade conflicts could quickly undermine consumer confidence. According to Buerkl, the current recovery in sentiment rests on uncertain foundations.
Economic uncertainty remains a concern. The German government is expected to lower its growth forecast for gross domestic product in 2026 to 1.0%, down from an earlier estimate of 1.3%, reflecting weaker global trade conditions. The revised outlook is expected to be included in the economy ministry’s annual report to be presented later on Wednesday.
Consumer climate details
The consumer climate index stood at -24.1 in February 2026, compared with -26.9 in January 2026 and -22.6 in February 2025.
Among the underlying components, economic expectations rose to 6.6 in January 2026 from 1.2 in December, while income expectations climbed to 5.1 from -6.9. Willingness to buy improved to -4.0 from -7.5, while the willingness to save indicator remained elevated at 17.9.
The survey was conducted between January 2 and January 13, 2026.
A reading above zero indicates year-on-year growth in private consumption, while a negative value signals a decline compared with the same period a year earlier. GfK estimates that a one-point change in the index corresponds to a 0.1% annual change in private consumption.
The “willingness to buy” component reflects responses to whether consumers believe it is a good time to make major purchases. Income expectations measure households’ outlook for their financial situation over the next 12 months, while economic expectations capture views on the broader economy over the same period.
