Silver prices have staged a powerful rally this year, emerging as one of the standout market stories after jumping more than 30% in just the past two weeks. The rapid advance has pushed prices well beyond Citi’s previous short-term bullish expectations, far sooner than anticipated.
Maximilian Layton, Citi’s global head of commodities research, said silver has already surpassed the bank’s earlier 0–3 month target of $100 per ounce. That target had been raised to $85 only two weeks ago, prompting Citi to further upgrade its near-term outlook and signal additional upside ahead.
Layton said Citi has remained bullish on silver, both on its own and relative to gold, for several months and continues to hold that view in the weeks ahead. He noted that the rally is being driven primarily by strong capital inflows rather than traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals, likening silver’s behavior to “gold squared” or “gold on steroids.”
Citi now sees potential for another 30% to 40% gain in the near term, lifting its 0–3 month point price target to $150 an ounce. Layton said the rally is likely to continue until silver begins to appear historically expensive when compared with gold.
The surge has already propelled silver to a record intraday high near $117.7 per ounce, while the gold-to-silver ratio has dropped below 50. This move reinforces Citi’s long-standing view that silver is positioned to outperform gold.
Citi remains tactically bullish, citing heightened geopolitical risks and renewed concerns over Federal Reserve independence as key drivers of strong investment and speculative demand. The bank said these factors continue to support the sharp rise in prices.
According to Citi, China has been the primary force behind the rally, with additional support from India and broader global retail demand. Physical market premiums in Shanghai and India have climbed sharply, even as typically bearish indicators such as declining ETF holdings and reduced Comex positioning have failed to slow the advance.
Chinese authorities have taken steps to cool the market, including suspending new subscriptions to the country’s only silver ETF and raising margin requirements on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. However, Citi does not expect these measures to significantly dampen demand, noting that Chinese retail investors often follow price trends, which could further tighten market conditions.
Looking at historical relationships between gold and silver, Citi said a return to previous lows in the gold-to-silver ratio could justify prices in the $160 to $170 range. A move toward the post-Bretton Woods low seen in 1979 would imply silver prices in the mid-to-high $300s, although Citi described such a scenario as extremely unlikely.
