Bitcoin derivatives markets suggest traders are largely holding their ground, but a sustained move back toward $95,000 will likely depend on renewed institutional inflows, particularly after $1.58 billion exited spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this week.
Funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual futures remain subdued at around 7%, indicating that bullish traders are still reluctant to add significant leverage. While this marks a recovery from near-zero levels earlier in the week, it remains slightly below the typical neutral range of 6%–12%, pointing to cautious sentiment.
Bitcoin has traded below $91,000 since Tuesday, even as global equity markets rallied on strong U.S. economic growth and employment data. With BTC struggling to regain upside momentum, traders are increasingly watching whether the $88,000 support level can continue to hold.
Options data points to consolidation, not panic
Despite the recent pullback, there has been no sharp rise in demand for downside protection through Bitcoin options. Data from Laevitas shows that the most active options strategies in recent sessions were long straddles and long iron condors, both of which benefit from volatility rather than directional price moves. This suggests that large traders and market makers are positioning for price consolidation, not an aggressive sell-off from current levels near $89,500.
Long-to-short ratios further support this view. On major exchanges such as Binance and OKX, top traders have modestly increased their long exposure, even as Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $90,000 mark. This behavior points to a neutral-to-bullish bias, despite limited appetite for high-risk leverage.
Institutional flows remain the missing catalyst
One factor weighing on sentiment has been the broader shift toward traditional safe havens. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.58 billion in outflows, while gold surged to record highs, signaling a preference for lower-risk assets. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have reinforced this trend, reflecting concerns over fiscal stability and inflation risks tied to continued economic stimulus.
Gold’s rally alongside higher bond yields typically signals declining confidence in long-term fiscal conditions, which has kept some investors cautious on cryptocurrencies for now.
What could drive the next move
Bitcoin derivatives have shown resilience following the recent retest of $88,000, with no clear signs of widespread bearish positioning. However, a meaningful recovery toward $95,000 will likely require institutional capital to return, particularly through spot ETF inflows. Until that happens, Bitcoin may remain range-bound, with traders favoring accumulation strategies over aggressive directional bets.
