A bearish signal from XRP’s cost-basis metric is pointing to the risk of a sharp price decline, as weakening technical conditions combine with spot ETF outflows. The key question now is whether bulls can defend critical support levels and prevent a deeper sell-off.
XRP’s onchain market structure is starting to resemble a pattern seen in 2022, when the token suffered heavy losses after breaking below an important support zone. At current levels, the setup is raising concerns that history could repeat itself if buyers fail to step in.
XRP structure mirrors pre-crash pattern
Data from Glassnode warns that XRP’s current structure closely resembles February 2022, a period that preceded months of sustained downside. According to the analytics firm, investors active over the one-week to one-month window are accumulating XRP below the cost basis of holders in the six- to twelve-month range.
This dynamic means newer buyers are sitting on unrealized gains, while mid-term holders remain underwater. If key price levels are not reclaimed, this imbalance can create persistent overhead selling pressure as stressed holders look to exit positions.
Glassnode added that as this structure continues, psychological pressure builds on investors who bought near recent highs. A similar setup in early 2022 saw XRP trading around $0.78 before falling roughly 68% to near $0.30 by June of that year.
If a comparable scenario plays out, XRP could slide toward the $1.40 region, particularly if support between $1.80 and $2 fails to hold.
$2 level emerges as critical support
The $2 mark has become a major psychological and technical level for XRP in the short to medium term. Previous analysis from Glassnode shows that every retest of this level since early 2025 triggered between $500 million and $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses, indicating that many holders chose to sell into strength.
When XRP trades below $2, pressure intensifies on investors who accumulated at higher prices, while opportunistic buyers step in at lower levels. This pattern echoes past market behavior, where repeated tests of a key support zone gradually weakened demand before a decisive breakdown.
In 2022, a similar process unfolded around the $0.55 level, which held for more than a year before finally breaking and triggering a 48% drop. A comparable loss of support at $2 could open the door to a deeper decline, with XRP potentially finding a bottom near the 200-week moving average around $1.03.
Technical analysis cited by Cointelegraph also highlights that XRP’s break below its 50-day simple moving average near $2 signals growing bearish momentum, with downside risk extending toward $1.25.
XRP ETFs add to selling pressure
Adding to the cautious outlook, spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded their second day of net outflows since launch. Data from SoSoValue shows that ETFs saw $53 million in outflows on Tuesday, the largest single-day withdrawal since their debut.
These flows suggest rising caution among institutional investors or profit-taking amid broader weakness in the crypto market. Combined with the fragile technical structure, ETF outflows are increasing sell-side pressure and reinforcing near-term downside risks for XRP.
