Bitcoin has regained momentum as inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resume, but market data suggests bulls may struggle to drive prices toward the $105,000 level in the near term.
Bitcoin climbed above $97,000 after recording a 5.5% daily gain, reaching its highest level in more than 60 days. The rally followed roughly $840 million in inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds over the past two trading sessions. While the renewed ETF demand has helped stabilise price action, questions remain over whether the move has enough support to extend higher.
Despite the rebound, derivatives markets are flashing caution. Options data shows that professional traders remain defensive, with put options continuing to trade at a premium. The 30-day BTC options delta skew has held near 4%, unchanged from the previous week, signalling that risk perceptions have not improved materially even after Bitcoin pushed above $96,000. This suggests skepticism around any sustained move beyond the psychologically important $100,000 level.
Bitcoin’s strength also stands in contrast to broader equity markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index continues to struggle, failing to reclaim levels last seen in late 2025. At the same time, Bitcoin remains about 23% below its all-time high, while gold and silver have reached fresh record levels, highlighting ongoing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
Risk-off backdrop limits upside
The lack of bullish conviction can partly be explained by rising geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. Recent protests in Iran and subsequent warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump, including the possibility of new trade tariffs, have increased uncertainty around global relations, particularly involving China and India.
Investor sentiment has also been shaken by concerns over Greenland’s strategic importance, as well as broader political tensions in Europe. These developments have reinforced a risk-off environment, encouraging investors to reduce exposure to equities and higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
In bond markets, yields on the U.S. two-year Treasury have fallen sharply, signalling a growing preference for safety despite inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target. This shift suggests investors are prioritising capital preservation over returns, a dynamic that typically caps upside for Bitcoin.
Adding to the cautious tone, Warren Buffett has reportedly warned about uncertainty surrounding the long-term direction of artificial intelligence, a factor that has weighed on technology stocks. Berkshire Hathaway’s record cash holdings underscore the broader defensive stance among large institutional players.
Although Bitcoin’s recent rally forced the liquidation of hundreds of millions of dollars in short positions, derivatives data indicates that traders remain unconvinced this marks the end of the recent bear phase. For now, Bitcoin’s path toward $105,000 appears constrained by macro uncertainty, geopolitical risks and lingering doubts about the Federal Reserve’s ability to support growth without reigniting inflation.
